UK Cost & Programme Reality Check — 5 truths shaping 2026 decisions
After years of volatility, many teams are hoping for a “normal” year. 2026 may be more stable, but it won’t be simpler. The most credible forecasts still point to continued upward pressure on costs and tender prices over the medium term, even if the pace varies by sector and region.
Here are five truths we’re seeing across projects, and what senior teams are doing about them.
1. Tender price growth is still there — just more selective
BCIS is forecasting building costs and tender prices rising over the next five years (their latest forecast indicates 15% building cost growth and 17% tender price growth over that period). At the same time, BCIS’ tender price index commentary suggests recent quarterly movement has been relatively subdued (e.g., 0.7% q/q in 4Q2025 and 2.5% y/y in their all-in index estimate).
What leaders are doing: choosing procurement routes that match risk appetite, and locking down scope earlier to avoid mid-stream re-pricing.
2. Materials demand is weak — but supply chain risk hasn’t vanished
Government’s building materials statistics are a key barometer for market conditions, and industry commentary has pointed to ongoing softness in demand for core materials. Weak demand doesn’t automatically equal “cheap and easy” delivery, capability, sequencing, and labour availability still bite.
What leaders are doing: treating “availability” as a programme deliverable (not an assumption), and building realistic lead-times into early designs.
3. Refurb, retrofit and compliance-heavy work changes the rules
A growing share of pipeline is complex refurbishment, upgrades, and compliance-led programmes. These carry more unknowns than straightforward new build, which is why contingencies and survey strategy matter more than ever.
What leaders are doing: heavier upfront surveys, enabling works packages, and clearer change-control governance.
4. Programme certainty is becoming a competitive advantage
Clients are increasingly paying for certainty: reliable dates, robust risk registers, and transparent decision-making. This is where strong PM/QS collaboration becomes a differentiator.
What leaders are doing: “one version of the truth” reporting, and risk allowances that are defensible (not wishful).
5. The market is rewarding teams who can collaborate early
JLL’s 2026 UK construction perspective emphasises the economic and market factors affecting costs and programmes, and the need for practical strategies to manage risk and uncertainty.
What leaders are doing: earlier contractor engagement where appropriate, clearer information requirements, and tighter client-side governance so decisions stick.
Kingsley Compass link-in: This is exactly why our Senior Benefits Survey matters. When programme risk rises, so does the premium on leadership, and the benefits, flexibility, and incentives that keep leaders in role through delivery pressure.
